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Energy Rivalry To Dominate Putin Russian Agenda In Ankara
6 August 2009
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will pay a one-day visit to Turkey tomorrow to discuss energy cooperation after Turkey signed an intergovernmental agreement with European Union countries to launch a natural gas pipeline project that the EU hopes will reduce its energy dependence on Russia. Putin's trip on Thursday, the latest in a series of top-level visits between the two countries in recent years, follows the July 13 signing in Ankara of an agreement on the planned Nabucco pipeline, which is projected to transport gas from Caspian, Central Asian and Middle Eastern suppliers to Europe. Moscow, on the other hand, has separately been lobbying for its own South Stream pipeline project designed to carry 63 billion cubic meters of gas to protect its 25 percent share of the European gas market. Russian officials have invited Turkey to join the South Stream project, an offer Turkey has not openly rejected. In what appeared to be a sweetener for a deal on South Stream, Russia promised on Wednesday to supply oil for a pipeline traveling between Turkey's Black Sea province of Samsun and the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, speaking after talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shmatko, in Ankara, said the two countries will sign a protocol on the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline. Ankara hopes the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline, which will rely on Russian oil coming through the Blue Stream pipeline passing underneath the Black Sea, will boost its role as an energy bridge transferring gas and oil from Caspian suppliers to world markets. Turkey already hosts the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, transferring gas from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz oil fields to Western markets. Moscow also offers cooperation on Turkey's nuclear energy plans. Foreign Ministry spokesman Burak Özügergin said at a press conference on Wednesday that two deals -- one on the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the other on the exchange of information on nuclear facilities -- will be signed during Putin's visit. But Russian promises of supplying oil for the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline and cooperation on nuclear energy may fail to get Turkey on board on South Stream. “Turkey invited Russia to Nabucco, and Russia invited Turkey to the South Stream. However, it does not seem possible that these countries will join either pipeline,” Sinan Ogan, head of the Ankara-based Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (TÜRKSAM), told Today's Zaman. Despite the July 13 agreement, the Nabucco project still lacks commitment from potential suppliers. Russia says Azerbaijan, the main potential supplier for both the Nabucco and South Stream projects, has promised Russia priority in buying its gas. Putin may underline that the Nabucco project is hard to implement given the lack of any formal commitment from potential suppliers to fill the pipeline. Turkey's support for South Stream is important for Russia because the pipeline could then cross Turkish territorial waters. The Turkish rejection of the project would force South Stream to go through the territorial waters of Ukraine, with which Russia has already experienced two gas rows over the past three years. Observers say Russia could put pressure on Turkey to support its South Stream project, given Turkey's own dependence on Russia for energy: Nearly 70 percent of Turkish gas imports are from Russia. But Ogan says debates over whether Nabucco will become a reality are pointless because of the extensive Western support for the project. “Nabucco is also a political project. The US is a staunch supporter. Nabucco will eventually be realized despite Russia's attempt to make it an empty pipe,” he said. In Ankara, Foreign Ministry spokesman Özügergin underlined the strategic dimension of Nabucco. “Nabucco is not only an energy project. It symbolizes the realization of a vision; it links Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East to Europe,” said Özügergin. “It is not against anyone, and it is one of the assets that will make Turkey an indispensable part of the European Union.” ‘Close partners’
Putin's visit is the third top-level visit exchanged between Turkey and Russia in 2009, following a February visit by President Abdullah Gül and a May visit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “These [visits] should be seen as revealing that we perceive each other as close partners,” Özügergin said. He said several issues will be discussed when Putin meets with Gül and Erdogan on Thursday. Energy will certainly not be the only item discussed during Putin's visit, which comes a day before the anniversary of a Russo-Georgian war over the breakaway republic of South Ossetia. The latest developments in the South Caucasus, Turkish-Armenian relations and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem are also expected to be discussed during the visit. Turkey, which has been in talks with neighboring Armenia to normalize relations, sees Russia as a key actor in efforts to reach a resolution in Armenia's Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with Azerbaijan, a conflict which also hinders the Turkish-Armenian process. Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, has said progress in efforts to normalize ties with Armenia depend on progress in efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Russia, along with the United States and France, is one of three mediators that have worked for one-and-a-half decades to resolve the conflict. Turgut Gür, the honorary chair of the Turkish-Russian Cooperation Council, said he hopes the talks will also cover customs-related problems Turkish trucks carrying goods to Russia face. “As an honorary chair of the Turkish-Russian Cooperation Council, I asked the government to include the border problem with Russia. Turkish trucks have long faced many problems related to their passage to Russia. I hope the Turkish side will also discuss this issue with Putin,” he said.
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